Daily Market Outlook, June 23, 2020 

<h2><span>Daily Market Outlook, June 23, 2020 </span></h2>
<p><span><strong>It was a volatile session in Asia after White House trade advisor Peter Navarro’s comments that “it’s over”</strong>, interpreted as a reference to the US-China phase one trade deal, sent risk assets lower. He later clarified his remarks, while President Trump tweeted “The China Trade Deal is fully intact”. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>June PMI releases for Japan showed a big rise in services to 42.3 from 26.5</strong>, although manufacturing was a little lower at 37.8. Australian manufacturing PMI, however, increased to 49.8 from 44.0, while services soared back into expansion territory to 53.2 from 26.9. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>UK PM Johnson will reportedly announce in parliament today (at around 12.30pm) a further easing of lockdown restrictions in England</strong>, with cinemas, museums and galleries allowed to reopen on 4 July with safety measures in place. The 2-metre rule may also be reduced to 1 metre, according to reports, which would support the hospitality sector. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>With restrictions continuing to be eased, a number of June updates including ‘flash’ PMIs for the Eurozone, UK and the US today, will be watched for signs of recovery.</strong> The May releases saw sizeable pickups in headline indices for both manufacturing and services from their April lows across all three economies. Crucially, however, all the data remained below the key 50 level that is supposed to signal an expansion in activity. Market watchers forecast a further rise in the June PMIs, although the headline numbers in the Eurozone and the UK are forecast to remain below 50. Forecasts are for Eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs to rise to 45.0 and 40.0 respectively. Expect UK manufacturing and services PMIs to rise to 46.5 and 41.0 respectively. In theory that suggests the Eurozone and UK economies continued to contract in June, but it seems more likely that these measures are underestimating activity, perhaps because survey respondents are affected by sentiment. </span></p>
<p><span><strong>The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will give a policy update in the early hours of Wednesday (UK time).</strong> It is forecast to leave monetary policy unchanged, including keeping interest rates at 0.25%, but may say more about its intentions with regard to QE following an announcement last week that it will further taper purchases. The RBNZ Governor will probably also confirm that a cut in interest rates below zero is currently unlikely, especially as the country has lifted all lockdown restrictions.</span></p>
<h3><b>Today’s Options Expiries</b><span> for 10AM New York Cut (notable size in bold)</span></h3>
<ul>
<li><span>EURUSD: </span><span>1.1245 (410M), 1.1250 (400M)</span></li>
<li><span>AUDUSD 0.6900 (350M)</span></li>
<li><span>USDJPY:</span> <span>106.73 (500M)</span></li>
</ul>
<h2><span>Technical &amp; Trade Views</span></h2>
<p><b>EURUSD Bias: Bullish above 1.1170 targeting 1.15</b></p>
<p><span>From a technical and trading perspective, as symmetry swing support at 1.1170 supports there is a window for fresh demand to take prices higher again to retest cycle highs above 1.14 enroute to an ultimate retest of year to date highs at 1.15. However, it is noteworthy that the daily volume weighted average price has flipped bearish as such a failure to hold support at 1.1170/50 would open a deeper corrective phase to rest bids back to 1.10 UPDATE prices have reversed from the equality support objective, printing a bullish key reversal candle yesterday opening a window for a retest of cycle highs above 1.14</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-45757" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.07.25.png" alt="" width="2147" height="1237" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.07.25.png 2147w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.07.25-300×173.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.07.25-1024×590.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.07.25-768×442.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.07.25-1536×885.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.07.25-2048×1180.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2147px) 100vw, 2147px" /></p>
<p><b>GBPUSD Bias: Bullish above 1.24 Bearish below</b></p>
<p><span>GBPUSD From a technical and trading perspective, 1.2324 equality downside objective achieved, buyers have stepped in and as this level is defended look for a move to test descending trendline resistance at 1.25. Bearish reversal patterns in this area would set up a move to retests and ultimately erode support at 1.2320 opening a move to test 1.21. On the day only a close back through 1.2510 would suggest a more meaningful low is in place for another attempt to take out stops above 1.28</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-45758" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.08.19.png" alt="" width="2152" height="1236" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.08.19.png 2152w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.08.19-300×172.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.08.19-1024×588.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.08.19-768×441.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.08.19-1536×882.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.08.19-2048×1176.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2152px) 100vw, 2152px" /></p>
<p><b>USDJPY Bias: Bearish below 1.08 targeting 1.06</b></p>
<p><span>USDJPY From a technical and trading perspective, sharp rejection above 109.50 suggests a return to range trade and a retest of support back to 107 UPDATE target achieved as 108 caps upside attempts bears will play for a test of year to date lows to 106</span></p>
<p><span><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-45759" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.08.50.png" alt="" width="2155" height="1235" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.08.50.png 2155w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.08.50-300×172.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.08.50-1024×587.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.08.50-768×440.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.08.50-1536×880.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.08.50-2048×1174.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2155px) 100vw, 2155px" /> </span></p>
<p><b>AUDUSD Bias: Bearish below .6900 Bullish above)</b></p>
<p><span>AUDUSD From a technical and trading perspective, after the rejection from above the .7050 level and the subsequent failure to hold .6900 as support, anticipate a test of the corrective equality objective back to .6650. Only a close back through .6910 would reignite bullish spirits suggesting the current correction is complete opening another run to test offers and stops above .7050</span></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-45760" src="http://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.09.42.png" alt="" width="2149" height="1235" srcset="https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.09.42.png 2149w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.09.42-300×172.png 300w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.09.42-1024×588.png 1024w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.09.42-768×441.png 768w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.09.42-1536×883.png 1536w, https://blog.tickmill.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Screenshot-2020-06-23-08.09.42-2048×1177.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 2149px) 100vw, 2149px" /></p>
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